The need to rely on non-market measures to ensure security of supply in rather isolated Mediterranean systems such as Malta is common in summer periods. The Summer Outlook 2020 highlights some risks in this respect, but non-market measures should be sufficient to cope with operational challenges and supply shortages.
In some bidding zones of Italy as well as in Poland, some minor risks are also identified for certain weeks. These will be closely monitored by the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Regional Security Coordinators.
No adequacy issues are expected in Bulgaria for the upcoming summer as quite a large margin between available generating capacity and expected demand will be in place. COVID-19 containment measures might cause some slight delays in the maintenance program of OHL and generating units but on the other hand there was a noticeable drop in demand in April 2020 (6% compared to April 2019) and this is envisaged to remain as a trend during the whole summer period of 2020. As of the latest information, nothing suggests adequacy risks throughout the summer. No adequacy issues were detected during the past winter season in Bulgaria. This was mostly due to the mild winter we had and the lower than expected peak loads.
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to ease adequacy in Summer 2020 even if it is difficult to predict the specific impact of the pandemic due to high uncertainty. TSOs expect demand to recover over the summer from the very low levels recorded in spring, but to remain below what typically would be expected in normal years; especially in southern countries where supply margins normally shrink during the summer. Some outages had to be rescheduled, which could influence the resource availability in the coming winter. Already now, TSOs are cooperating to mitigate any potential risks linked to the all-round rescheduling of outages Additional monitoring will be performed through the Winter Outlook 2020/2021 adequacy assessment, when the rescheduling plans will be more advanced.
The Summer Outlook is accompanied by a retrospect of last winter. Winter 2019/2020 was the warmest on record in Europe. It was marked by some winter storms towards the end of the season, by coinciding with the start of the COVID 19 pandemic. TSOs experienced challenges in voltage regulation (i.e. keeping the voltage within the operational range) and in dealing with unusual flow patterns when renewable generation was high, and demand was low. They managed by relying on markets to a large extent and only used the curtailment of renewable generation as a last resort. Despite these exceptional circumstances no security of supply incident was recorded.
Source: ENTSO-E
