The regional wholesale average price contracts in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed only slight increases between January and March 2018. The monthly baseload average price rose from 36 €/MWh to 41 €/MWh in this period, while the monthly peakload average went up from 45 €/MWh to 53 €/MWh. Wholesale electricity prices in the South-Eastern Europe (SEE) region, where Bulgaria is situated decreased measurably in the first quarter of 2018: while in January average regional baseload price stood at 53 €/MWh and the regional average peakload was 54 €/MWh, in March they fell to 44 €/MWh and 45 €/MWh, respectively. The baseload price in Bulgaria and Serbia were below the Greek peers during most of the time in Q1 2018, on quarterly average the Serbian price had a discount of 12 €/MWh to Greece, while the Bulgarian market had a discount of 16 €/MWh. Looking at the daily average price contracts, Greek prices were close to 50 €/MWh during most of the time in January-February 2018, while at the same time the Bulgarian, Croatian and Serbian daily contracts were closely aligned and fluctuating between 30-50 €/MWh. In March however, Greek prices became lower and, albeit keeping their discount to the Greek market, wholesale prices in Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia became even more volatile than in the beginning of 2018. Wholesale electricity markets in the Balkans are not very liquid; this is one reason for bigger price volatility. On the other hand, change in hydro power availability can also be a significant factor in the wholesale price formation, as besides coal and lignite hydro is an important generation 27 source in the region. In Bulgaria a large share of domestic power generation is ensured by nuclear (37% in Q1 2018), providing for a cheap electricity source.
Comparison of weekly average day-ahead prices in Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia and Serbia
In Hungary however, one of the reactors of the Paks nuclear plant, having a nameplate capacity of 500 MW, was taken offline for the whole month of March. The temporary disruption of domestic capacities resulted in a high share (43%) of imports in the country`s electricity consumption, which could be mainly satisfied from cheap import sources from the Balkans.
In the first two months of 2018 hydro availability in Romania and the Balkans remained low compared to the seasonal average. However, as the weather turned rainier at the beginning of March, hydro reserves and generation started to increase, which resulted in lower wholesale electricity prices in Romania and cheap electricity import sources for net electricity importer countries in the CEE region (e.g.: Hungary, Slovenia). The Balkans and South East Europe became the most important electricity import source for the CEE region in March 2018, overtaking Central Western Europe.
In the first quarter of 2018, the prices for industrial consumers in Bulgaria remained one of the lowest in Europe at 7.42 cents/kWh compared to the EU average of 11.45 cents/kWh. Data computed from Eurostat half-yearly retail electricity prices and consumper price indices:
Source: DG Energy – Quarterly report on European electricity markets